Econometric Modeling
Highly accurate sales forecast
Econometric models
the way to predict the volume of product sales with an accuracy of 95% and increase the profitability of the business
We create sales models that take into account the weight and influence of each factor (advertising, price, distribution, competitors, etc.) on product sales.
The model allows you to test scenarios of proposed marketing, advertising and pricing changes before they are implemented, helping you make the right decisions and bringing the cost of testing error closer to zero.
The model allows you to test scenarios of proposed marketing, advertising and pricing changes before they are implemented, helping you make the right decisions and bringing the cost of testing error closer to zero.
The resulting formula is able to show the levels of investment in ;this or that type of advertising in order to get the response that maximizes ROI; determine the price of the product that maximizes off-take in the current market situation.
In complex and integrated models, it is possible to determine the cross-dependence of one product on the promotion of another within a portfolio of brands.
The model breaks down the final level of sales into influencing factors, examining the dynamics of response to particular changes.
In complex and integrated models, it is possible to determine the cross-dependence of one product on the promotion of another within a portfolio of brands.
The model breaks down the final level of sales into influencing factors, examining the dynamics of response to particular changes.
Benefits of the sales forecast model
ROI grows to +30%
- You see graphs of response to advertising and marketing activities
- You determine the levels of investment needed to achieve your goals
Risks of marketing activities are levelled out
- You are not trying out promotion approaches blindly
- You can independently test promotion scenarios
- The result of the campaign is known before the launch.
- You know the effect of campaigns in advance
Model in preferred form
- Formula or group of formulas
- An MS Excel workbook with an interface, charts, and data set that you can start working with and making predictions right away
- A *.dll or *.ocx library that plugs into your existing software
- A software product with a user-friendly interface that can make forecasts, make graphs and give recommendations
What mathematical methods do we use?
- time series
- Different kinds of multiple regression analysis
- MARSplines
- regression trees
- cluster analysis
- factor analysis
- loglinear analysis
- neural networks
- Other methods necessary for a particular task (specialized software and mathematical algorithms are used in the process of work)
Modeling technique
1
Factors
- define a set of factors that influence the final result;
- leave the significant;
- remove or neglect the insignificant ones.
2
Model
We build a model of the dependence of the result on the parameters:
- We make a formula or a system of formulas that most accurately describe the existing behavior of the brand;
- Using various optimization algorithms we determine the coefficients of the model.
3
Verification
- the model is verified on historical sales data provided by you, a depth of at least 1 year, or better 3-5 years
Increase your ROI to +30%
And stop testing marketing plans blindly
Contact us
We are always happy to communicate
tel.: +7(499) 112-3163
